24TDR911 - Wildfire Risk Modeling

The Province is seeking a provincial scale modeling and analytical assessment of the likelihood of simulated escaped wildfires. Using the Canadian Fire Behaviour Prediction System and an approved Simulated Wildfire Growth Engine, the model will simulate the ignition, spread, and duration of a multiple wildfires under specified burning conditions. The model inputs include streams of historical fire weather, historical patterns of human and lightning ignition, fuels, topography, and seasonal burning conditions. Core outputs from this project include a provincial scaled burn probability map, simulated daily fire growth polygons, and Fire Behaviour Prediction System (FBP) outputs.

Landscape level burn probability and risk analysis informs Wildfire Management Planning, integrated forest management planning, sub-regional planning, and FireSmart planning and is used for operational predictive services support for prioritization of resources. The objective is to enhance Alberta’s ability to make efficient and cost effective decisions for both short and long range wildfire risk planning, to support public safety, and reduce impacts to environmental, economic and social values.

The project is divided into five subprojects: (1) data generation and analytics; (2) fire growth simulation; (3) model calibration and statistics; (4) documentation, reporting, and communication; (5) maintenance in case of a significant large landscape disturbance.